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The Impact of the
Middle East Conflict
on the Southeast Asian Travel Industry

March 2026 In partnership with ASEANTA

Summary of key findings. For full information, download the free report.

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Key Findings

48%
of travel businesses expect Q2 2026 prospects to be worse than anticipated at the start of the year
72%
report at least some postponements or cancellations for travel to the Middle East
70%
report disruption to travel to Europe, as Middle East hubs connect the two regions
64%
expect outbound demand to be redirected to regional travel within Southeast Asia
46%
cite logistical barriers as the most common reason for the cancellations and postponements.
67%
of inbound operators report cancellations or postponements from European source markets

Business Outlook: Q2 2026

Sentiment among Southeast Asian travel businesses

Prospects vs. Start-of-Year Expectations

Nearly half of respondents (48%) believe prospects in Q2 2026 will be worse compared to what they expected at the beginning of the year

Thai (90%) and Singaporean (87%) businesses are most pessimistic, compared to Indonesia (68%) and the Philippines (64%)

Much worse
7.0%
Worse
41.4%
Equal
24.2%
Better
20.4%
Much better
7.0%

All respondents

Expected Enquiry Volume vs. 2025

A majority of travel businesses (55%) expect the number of enquiries in Q2 2026 to remain below last year's levels

74% of inbound businesses expect fewer enquiries vs 50% of outbound operators

>30% below 2025 levels
18.5%
10%–30% below 2025 levels
26.1%
0%–10% below 2025 levels
10.2%
Equal to 2025 levels
19.1%
0%–10% above 2025 levels
8.3%
10%–30% above 2025 levels
14.0%

All respondents

Outbound Travel from Southeast Asia

How the conflict is affecting departures

Travel to the Middle East

72% of travel businesses report at least some postponements or cancellations for travel to the Middle East

Some trips postponed/cancelled
52.6%
No upcoming departures
16.4%
All trips cancelled
11.2%
All trips postponed
7.8%
Departure switched to different location
6.9%
Departure as normal
5.2%

Outbound travel businesses

Travel to Europe

With Middle East airports acting as the most common transit points between Southeast Asia and Europe, travel between the two regions is unsurprisingly disrupted

Some trips postponed/cancelled
46.6%
Departure switched to different region
15.5%
All trips postponed
12.1%
All trips cancelled
11.2%
No upcoming departures to Europe
8.6%
Departure as normal
6.0%

Outbound travel businesses

Main Reason for Cancellations / Postponements

Outbound from Southeast Asia

40%
Decision from client
Traveller sentiment is driving cancellations alongside logistics
46%
Logistics (cancelled flights, closed airports)
Proving the importance of Middle Eastern hubs for global connectivity
4%
Decision from travel agent
Agents proactively cancelling represents a small share

Note: Singapore travel businesses are an exception — 67% cite client decisions vs only 17% logistics, reflecting the country’s higher number of direct flights worldwide.

Where Is Demand Being Redirected?

Regional travel (64%) remains a strong option, with Europe (24%) still high up on the list despite flight disruptions

Thai respondents favour Europe (56%); Philippines respondents see domestic travel rising (30%)

Southeast Asia
63.8%
East Asia
47.4%
Europe
24.1%
Central / South Asia
24.1%
Oceania (Australia / New Zealand)
22.4%
Domestic travel
19.0%
No change in travel to the Middle East
7.8%
North America
6.0%
South America
3.5%
Africa
1.7%

Outbound travel businesses

Inbound Travel to Southeast Asia

How source markets from the Middle East and Europe are affected

Arrivals from the Middle East

Inbound travel to Southeast Asia for Mar-Apr is also impacted by the Middle East conflict.

Thailand dominates as the primary destination for Middle Eastern visitors within the region (1.28M arrivals in 2025), making it most exposed to any drop in this source market.

Some trips postponed/cancelled
56.4%
No upcoming arrivals from Middle East
18.0%
Departure as normal
15.4%
All trips cancelled
5.1%
Departure switched to different location
5.1%

Inbound travel businesses

Arrivals from Europe

Travel from Europe to Southeast Asia is likely to stumble in the short-term amid the lack of flights by Middle Eastern airlines.

Europe is a critical source market, particularly for Thailand (25% of all international arrivals). Flight disruption via Middle Eastern hubs is the primary driver of cancellations.

Some trips postponed/cancelled
61.5%
No upcoming arrivals from Europe
18.0%
Departure as normal
7.7%
Departure switched to different region
7.7%
All trips postponed
5.1%

Inbound travel companies

European Arrivals to Southeast Asia (2025, ‘000)

8,250
Thailand (25% of all international arrivals)
2,771
Vietnam (13%)
2,457
Indonesia (16%)
2,086
Singapore (12%)
1,318
Malaysia (5%)
825
Philippines (14%)

Source: Cambodia MoT, Indonesia MOTCE, Malaysia MOTAC, Philippines DOT, Singapore STAN, Thailand MoTS, Vietnam VNAT

How Far Out Are Cancellations Reaching?

Inbound trip cancellations reach as far as May, before declining significantly for Q3. Over half (54%) of inbound tour operators reported cancellations for May, but the number decreases sharply for June (20%), and even further for Q3 2026.

Notably, 44% of respondents reported that they have not received any cancellations for May and beyond, signifying that the inbound market may not be severely affected in the long-term, and travellers are taking a wait-and-see approach

Cancellations for May
53.9%
Cancellations for June
20.5%
Cancellations for July
10.3%
Cancellations for August
5.1%
Cancellations for September
2.6%
Cancellations for October onwards
2.6%
No cancellations received
43.6%

Inbound travel companies

Main Reason for Cancellations / Postponements

Inbound to Southeast Asia

28%
Decision from client
Lower than outbound (40%), suggesting inbound travellers are less sensitive to the conflict
49%
Logistics (cancelled flights, closed airports)
Airspace closures and suspended flights remain the dominant barrier
8%
Decision from travel agent
Agents proactively cancelling represents a small share

Inbound travel companies

Voice of the Industry

What travel businesses are saying

“It hurts global travel as we find connectivity to Europe, Africa and even the Americas is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern airlines.”

Travel agent, Malaysia

“Due to the Middle East crisis, transit flights have been cancelled, preventing travellers from the UK, Europe, the USA, South America, and the Middle East from departing for Singapore and other ASEAN destinations for the coming months until further notice.”

DMC, Singapore

“Thailand and the broader Southeast Asian region may also experience a shift in travel demand, as travelers tend to favor destinations perceived as stable and safe. Thailand could potentially benefit from redirected tourism flows.”

Travel agent, Thailand

“The Middle East conflict may create short-term uncertainty among travellers… However, the broader travel industry in Malaysia is expected to remain resilient as travellers may shift demand toward alternative destinations in Asia and Europe.”

Travel agent, Malaysia
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Methodology

This research was conducted independently by Pear Anderson and distributed to The ASEAN Tourism Association (ASEANTA) members and non-members. The survey ran online from 8–18 March 2026 and captured responses from 157 travel businesses headquartered across 8 Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia (50), Philippines (36), Malaysia (28), Thailand (21), Singapore (15), Laos (3), Cambodia (3), Myanmar (1).

Respondents were predominantly travel agents and outbound tour operators (71%), with DMCs/inbound operators (12%), accommodation providers (6%) and others (9%) also represented.

About Pear Anderson

Pear Anderson is a boutique travel-industry consultancy firm, experts in the Southeast Asian tourism industry. We partner across the spectrum of tourism-related organisations to build a lasting foundation in the region.